Private equity faces $300bn debt wall from 2028, a third in software (opens the source in a new tab)
- Risky loans owed by buyout-backed firms bunch up in 2028 and 2029, far above the usual load, per PitchBook data cited by WSJ. Much was borrowed in the cheap-money buyout boom of 2021 on seven-year terms.
- Software makers owe about a third, and many face disruption from AI labs. Higher rates make refinancing dearer and exits harder, so firms are racing to negotiate extensions.
- Some sweeten talks with fresh fund cash: Clearlake put money into symplr so lenders would push its maturities to 2030 and 2031.
- $300bn
- PE-backed debt due from 2028
- 1/3
- owed by software firms
Why it matters If extensions fail, lenders take the keys and pensions and insurers earn less. AI is turning into a credit risk for the software it may replace.
Other side Two years leaves time to amend and extend, as lenders did with symplr, and a forced loss rarely suits anyone. A clear fall in rates would shrink the wall quickly.