IMF: an AI bust would hit growth in rich and poor countries alike (opens the source in a new tab)
- AI dominated the IMF and World Bank meetings in Bangkok. Data-centre investment is powering US growth, and Asian exports of chips and servers are booming, masking weak consumer spending.
- The IMF ran scenarios without picking one: an AI productivity boom, a boom slowed by supply bottlenecks, and a bust in which investors sour, US investment falls, stocks drop and the dollar weakens. The bust could cut global growth by up to 1.3 percentage points in 2028.
- It also flagged AI-assisted cyberattacks on banks as a new risk to stability. IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva expects some disappointment, because new technology takes time to spread.
- 1.3 pts
- world growth lost in a 2028 bust
- $10tn
- US data-centre spend through 2032
Why it matters AI is no longer just a tech-stock story; it is a macro bet. When exports, investment and growth in many countries lean on one theme, a stumble travels far beyond stock markets.
Other side The IMF stresses these are scenarios, not forecasts, and it also sketched an upside case. Fed chair Kevin Warsh sees AI as a long-run boost to supply that need not stoke inflation.