Dr Doom turns optimist: Roubini says India's moment has arrived (opens the source in a new tab)
- Nouriel Roubini, who warned of the 2008 crash at the IMF in 2006, told ET that India is a "major success story" and that the coming decades could be as much about India as past ones were about China.
- He expects market pressure and US worries about inflation and affordability to push tariffs lower and Washington towards a more constructive stance on India. The first phase of a trade deal is in legal drafting.
- His catch: 7% growth is not enough. India must get closer to 9% to give young people good jobs as AI reshapes work, and friendshoring away from China is the opening.
- 9%
- growth India needs for jobs
- 8%+
- potential growth with reforms
- $42.8bn
- exports to US, April-August
Why it matters This is the boom half. A famous bear calling India the next big story is a confidence signal, but his own number is the real headline: growth has to create jobs faster than AI removes them, the very trap the US PhD is stuck in.
Watch next Whether the US trade deal is signed and tariffs fall. "Next China" forecasts have come before, and moving from 7% to 9% needs reforms that have often stalled.