Andy Mukherjee: the AI productivity boom is hiding in software (opens the source in a new tab)
- Like computers in Robert Solow’s day, generative AI shows up everywhere except the productivity statistics, even as annual AI investment nears $1tn, argues the Bloomberg Opinion columnist.
- A paper led by Berkeley’s Alex Blumenfeld uses stock returns to estimate that, from November 2022 to December 2025, AI lifted the market’s value of software-engineering productivity by the equivalent of a permanent 32.6%.
- His own rough test on Sony, Coupang and Grab points the same way: firms that lean on software engineers gain first, so the boom may already be under way.
- 32.6%
- lift in coder productivity (est.)
- ~$1tn
- annual AI investment
Why it matters If the gains show up first in coding-heavy firms, investors and job-seekers should watch software hiring, not GDP data, for early signs.
Other side Stock prices reflect expectations, not measured output, and a three-company test is suggestive at best, as the author himself concedes.
Source:Mint (free to read) ↗