Elliott warns of FOGO as bear-market alarm bells ring (opens the source in a new tab)
- In an October investor letter seen by the WSJ, Paul Singer's Elliott likens today's debt-fuelled, hype-driven market to the Roaring '20s and says almost every bear-market warning is flashing.
- It lists US deficits, sticky inflation, Private credit Loans made by investment funds instead of banks, usually less regulated and less visible., AI hype and circular AI deals, plus gambling-like trading, and warns the mood could flip from FOMO to fear of getting obliterated.
- Elliott itself has lagged, gaining under 2% in the first nine months of 2026 against nearly 13% for the S&P 500, and is keeping capital ready for forced sellers.
Why it matters When a famously cautious fund trails the market, its warning also defends its own positioning; readers should weigh the list of risks more than the timing.
Other side Elliott's letters are known for gloom, and frothy markets can run for years; being early on a crash can cost nearly as much as missing it.