Gerard Baker: voters think the US economy is worse than it is (opens the source in a new tab)
- The WSJ’s editor at large argues that, as in 1992, perceptions rather than data are driving voters ahead of next month’s midterms, which Republicans expect to lose badly.
- A Quinnipiac poll gives Trump 31% approval on the economy, lower than Biden scored in June 2022, when inflation was at a 40-year high and output was shrinking, even though inflation and unemployment are lower today.
- He grants that prices remain far above 2020 levels and that tariffs and a war-driven rise in energy prices feed bills, but says AI investment may be starting a long boom.
- 31%
- Trump’s approval on the economy
Why it matters Midterms may turn on how prices feel at the checkout, not on GDP; the gap between data and mood is the real political variable.
Other side After years of increases, households judge price levels, not the inflation rate, and fuel costs have climbed again, so the ‘misperception’ may be a fair reading of stretched budgets.