Gillian Tett: five ways to tell if market trouble lies ahead (opens the source in a new tab)
- With US stocks at record highs, the cost of insuring AI-linked borrowers against default has risen for Meta, Google and Microsoft, jumped for Oracle and surged for SpaceX after reports of a $40bn funding call.
- Her questions: are tech forecasts credible, who funds the AI build-out, how high will rates go (the US Bond yield The annual return a bond pays at today's price; rising yields mean borrowing is getting dearer. is above 5%, from about 4%), will oil push them higher, and what if AI falters?
- AI-linked trade drove 76% of the rise in global goods trade in the first half of 2026.
- 5%+
- US 10-year yield, from ~4%
- 76%
- of goods-trade growth AI-linked
- $40bn
- SpaceX funding call
Why it matters Credit markets often sense trouble before stocks do, and rates, oil and AI debt are now tied together.
Other side Default insurance is thinly traded and can send distorted signals, and US company earnings are expected to be up 27% for the third quarter.