The new Fragile Five are rich nations, a Mint column argues (opens the source in a new tab)
- Narayan Ramachandran takes the 2013 label once pinned on Turkey, Brazil, India, South Africa and Indonesia and hands it to France, Italy, the UK, Germany and the US: fragile now in social, not currency, terms.
- Higher rates swell debt costs while inflation and an oil shock squeeze budgets. France's student protests have grown into a cost-of-living revolt against a fiscal deficit above 5% of GDP, and Italy has seen looting and fuel blockades.
- He rates Germany the least at risk of the five.
- 5%+
- France's fiscal deficit, share of GDP
Why it matters India was on the old list and now watches the roles reverse. Unrest in big rich economies can dent demand for Indian exports and keep oil and interest rates jumpy.
Other side Floating reserve currencies and deep bond markets give these nations room the old Fragile Five never had. Street protests are not defaults, and the label may stretch the comparison.