AI's job hit so far looks like a Big Tech story, not an economy one (opens the source in a new tab)
- A US analysis found productivity jumping in heavy AI-adopting sectors, and a Goldman Sachs note tied higher AI use to steeper job losses. John Burn-Murdoch says the picture blurs once you widen the lens.
- Outside the US, and in finance and professional services, the link largely fades. The gap between output and headcount is mostly a tech story, and it opened in 2022, when AI meant chatbots, not agents.
- His reading: rate hikes and uncertainty made firms stop hiring, and Big Tech cut deepest, long before production-ready AI.
Why it matters If the cause is misread, the fix will be too. Blaming AI for a hiring freeze driven by rates points policy and careers at the wrong problem.
Other side If firms now believe AI lets them do more with fewer people, a pause that began with rate hikes could harden into lasting AI-driven cuts. Does the original cause matter once the jobs don't return?