AI’s $2tn assumption: a boom built on debt (opens the source in a new tab)
- Apollo’s Torsten Sløk says Hyperscaler The giant cloud companies (Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Meta, Oracle) that build the biggest data centres. credit rests on operating cash flow rising from $600bn in 2025 to $2tn in 2030, about 27% a year.
- Alphabet’s free cash flow turned negative in April–June; it sold over $50bn of bonds in the first half, including a 100-year bond.
- Some debt sits off the books, like Meta’s ~$27bn Hyperion campus, funded through a venture mostly owned by Blue Owl funds.
- ~27%
- yearly growth needed
- $50bn+
- Alphabet bonds, H1
- $1tn+
- capex need by 2028
Why it matters Shares, bonds, private loans and pensions now ride the same AI bet.
Other side Unlike 2008’s low-income households, today’s borrowers are among the richest, highest-rated firms ever. Bubble, or big build?