Fed expected to hold as markets see 73% odds of a December rate hike (opens the source in a new tab)
- The Fed is expected to hold rates this week, so attention shifts to its 8–9 December meeting, where CME's FedWatch tool puts the odds of a rise at 73%, Barron's reports. Inflation is above target and an oil shock is spreading.
- This week's Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon results matter because AI spending has propped up growth and depends on borrowing that gets dearer as rates rise.
- Citigroup economists warn a deeper stock slide could end the hiking cycle. Chair Kevin Warsh wants to drop forward guidance, leaving markets to read the signals.
- 73%
- odds of a December hike (CME FedWatch)
Why it matters Markets are already doing some of the Fed's work: falling stocks and wider Credit spread The extra interest a risky borrower pays over a safe government bond; wider spreads signal more worry. tighten conditions without a vote. That turns AI earnings into a quiet input to US interest rates, and so to borrowing costs well beyond America.
Watch next Warsh's press conference on Wednesday and the 8–9 December decision. Dearer energy could keep inflation high even as growth slows, which would push the Fed to hike despite a sell-off.