AI bull market is no dotcom bubble, argues Bloomberg’s Nir Kaissar (opens the source in a new tab)
- In a Bloomberg Opinion column carried by Mint, Nir Kaissar argues the AI rally lacks the euphoria that drives bubbles: bears now outnumber bulls by 8 percentage points in AAII surveys, while bulls led by over 20 points in the late 1990s.
- He concedes AI’s grip is bigger: AI firms make up 40% to 60% of US market value and nearly 70% of S&P 500 third-quarter earnings growth, per Citadel Securities estimates.
- His forecast: profit growth cools and a pullback follows, but absent a crisis, nothing worse than an ordinary bear market.
- 8 pts
- bears ahead of bulls, AAII survey
- ~70%
- of S&P 500 Q3 earnings growth from AI firms (Citadel est.)
Why it matters Sentiment is a useful tell, but read it with today’s pensions story: when AI carries most of the market’s growth, even an ordinary bear market lands on retirees.
Other side Scepticism alone does not prevent a bust. Concentration is higher than in 1999, earnings can disappoint, and as Kaissar admits, bubbles are hard to call in real time.
Source:Mint (free to read) ↗