Rising sickness and disability claims strain Britain’s budget (opens the source in a new tab)

KKReckons explainer: what drives Britain’s sickness-benefit surge and why bond markets care.
Original graphic: KKReckonsView full size ↗
  • WSJ says Britain has seen an unusual surge in sickness and disability claims: about seven million people now claim, many for mental-health conditions that are hard to verify.
  • The yearly bill, excluding healthcare, tops £100bn and keeps rising, while Britain’s borrowing costs are the highest in the G7 and investors punish any sign of weak fiscal discipline.
  • An earlier attempt to tighten eligibility was dropped after a backlash and a bond sell-off; the new Labour leadership promises reform without “crude cuts”, with a budget due later this month.
7m
claim sickness or disability aid
£100bn+
yearly benefit bill

Why it matters It shows why bond investors watch welfare: when spending is politically hard to cut, borrowing costs rise and taxes follow, a squeeze other ageing democracies will recognise.

Other side Some of the rise may reflect genuine need and better recognition of mental-health conditions, and hard cuts could push vulnerable people into hardship rather than into work.

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