Oil slips below $100 as midterms raise hopes the Iran war fades (opens the source in a new tab)
- A Times of India column, reposted on Tessellatum, argues the US midterm result raised the odds that the Iran war fades. Brent is back below $100 a barrel from $117 two weeks earlier, though global inventories are still over half a billion barrels below pre-war levels.
- India's energy shock tops 2% of GDP, yet its growth upgrades have been the strongest among big economies. Windfall taxes on fuel exports, disinvestment and strong GST Goods and services tax: India's nationwide tax on most sales. collections should keep fiscal slippage small.
- The June-quarter current account deficit was $4.2bn, as services and remittances offset a wider goods gap. The author blames rupee pressure on over-hedged imports.
- <$100
- Brent, from $117 two weeks earlier
- $4.2bn
- June-quarter current account deficit
Why it matters Cheaper oil eases India's biggest external worry, and the column argues the rupee's weakness is about positioning, not fundamentals. If so, importers' heavy hedging should unwind and take pressure off the currency.
Other side Inventories need over a year to rebuild after the war ends, freight and diesel margins stay far above pre-war levels, and a war that fades is not one that ends. Only June-quarter payments data is complete.